Scientists have been keeping a close eye on asteroid 2024 YR4, and new calculations suggest it might have a small chance of crashing into the Moon instead of Earth. If this were to happen, the impact could release energy equivalent to 340 Hiroshima bombs, creating a massive crater about two kilometers wide on the lunar surface. The explosion would likely be visible from Earth, making it a rare and spectacular celestial event.
David Rankin, an operations engineer at the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, shared on social media that while the asteroid has a 0.3% chance of colliding with the Moon, it is unlikely to pose any significant threat to Earth. However, there is a slight possibility that debris from the impact could be ejected towards our planet.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in late December by scientists at the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile. Initially, it was given a 1.3% chance of colliding with Earth, but within a week, that probability nearly doubled to 2.3%. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter—large enough to cause massive destruction to a major city but not big enough to trigger global catastrophe.
Classified as a level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale (which ranks asteroids from 0 to 10 based on their impact risk), 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical orbit that swings past the inner planets, then moves beyond Mars toward Jupiter. If it were to strike Earth, potential impact zones include the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
Experts say that many asteroids have previously appeared on the risk list but were later downgraded as more data became available. Similarly, further observations might eventually rule out any threat from 2024 YR4. However, some countries, like China, are not taking any chances and have already begun forming planetary defense teams to prepare for a worst-case scenario.
